Greetings Folks,

And happy Brexit Day, which in any circumstance, is probably a contradiction in terms.  However it’s not Brexit day. Moreover it may very well never be Brexit day. Over 1000 days ago, on June 23rd 2016, Call Me Dave held his ill fated referendum on our continued membership of the European Union. Much to everyones surprise,  especially that of David Cameron, the vote was to Leave.  Yet here we are, nearly 3 years later  and seemingly no closer to departing. If anything, are probably closer to Brexit never happening.

Hence, yesterday, March 29th was supposed to be the day the UK left the European Union. Today was to be the first day of a brave new future. Only, well it isn’t.  Not sure what it is, apart from a very dismal day for British politics.

Where to Now?

I suspect, like me, you are probably sick to the hind teeth with Brexit and wishing it would just go away. If only. Instead, we are looking at an uncertain future where Brexit could potentially be the main feature for another one or two years if not longer.  What did we do to deserve this?

Democratic Decision

Well, arguably, we voted to leave in the first place. This was the wrong answer, at least if you are an MP. The referendum was primarily aimed at MP’s, particularly Conservative MP’s as a way of placating them.  It was supposed to shut up the Eurosceptics without Cameron having to take them head on himself. Let the public do the dirty work. It was as cowardly an idea as it was stupid. A knee jerk based on the firm expectation that Joe Public would affirm their desire to stay in the EU.  Which, with hindsight was an early indication of just how out of touch with the real world outside of the Westminster bubble, our elected representatives really are.

After inflicting this mess on us with his stupid referendum, Cameron cut and run. The very next day.  This wasn’t principled, it was cowardly.  A principled man, certainly a principled leader having created such a mess, would have at least tried to set up a strategy or a framework,  something, anything, for how we deliver on the decision. But no. Too hard, bit embarrassing. See you, I’m off.  All he created was a vacuum. One filled by Saint Theresa. I bet she wishes she hadn’t stepped forward now.

Mrs Mays cries of Brexit Means Brexit sound a bit hollow now.  Of course she was a remainer, so her heart was probably never really in it. But at least she tried. Without a lot of help from her parliamentary colleagues, with wealthy business people with vested interests putting  road blocks and obstacles in her way. And with an intransigent Europe determined to punish the UK for its audacity at voting to leave the Club. It was never going to be easy.  But, as has been proven, with the current incumbent bunch of political pygmies occupying Westminister, its been impossible.

Honestly? Have you ever seen a more arrogant, self centred, preening and aloof bunch of twits in your life. We deserve better. The country needs better but we have what we’ve got, God help us.  Personally, I can’t see it getting any better.  I can see it getting much worse, worryingly. Especially if Comrade Corbyn gets into Downing Street, a frighteningly real proposition.

So what are the options available now?

No Deal

Parliament has already voted to say it will not allow a No Deal Brexit.  It’s actually our current default legal position if we can’t get a deal or an extension from the other 27 EU members by April 12th.  It will be interesting, in a morbid kind of way, to see what would happen if we don’t get either a deal or an extension. If the EU does wave us bye bye on the 12th April,  will Parliament stick its collective fingers in its ears and go la la la we can’t hear you, Don’t want to, can’t make us? Nothing would surprise me.

There has been a lot of discussion and scare mongering about what a No Deal really means. Of course, one of the reasons we are where we are is because the so called Spartans of the Conservative party actively want a No Deal. Its a kind of childish ‘up yours Europe” attitude coupled with a bone headed refusal to accept that in the real world, we can’t always get everything we want. If we did, I would be driving a fleet of Aston Martins and spending my free time pulling  monster salmon out of the Spey. Ironically, their intransigence  in pursuit of an absolute hardest of all hard Brexits may very well lead to no Brexit. Something they remain in denial about as they bathe in their warm fuzzy air of pompous self righteousness. Compromise and National Interest are totally foreign to them. And we all know what think of anything foreign.

Then there is the DUP.  This is tricky and and something that Call Me Dave patently failed to even consider when he called his referendum.  Mrs May’s deal to leave the EU,  in fact, any deal that tries to deliver on 2 of the main ‘red lines ‘ of Brexit will create a hard border between the two Irelands. The red lines, leaving  the Customs Union and Free Trade zone will suddenly create an effective border between European Southern Ireland and the UK Northern Ireland. No one want this, least of all the DUP.  The so called Irish Backstop tries to avoid a hardening of the Irish border by potentially keeping Northern Ireland in the Custom Union, which would instead draw a border down the Irish Sea between Ireland and the rest of the UK. The DUP are concerned that this could result in a permanent Customs Union with Eire, eventually resulting in a permanent unification of the two Irelands.  This is a huge no no for them. Get out of that one Dave.  As a layman, I struggle to believe this can’t be resolved with a bit of common sense and compromise by both sides. Oh hang on a minute. Oh yes. Common sense and compromise.  We are stuffed given the bunch we have sitting in Parliament and across the channel in Brussels at the moment.

Bottom line, I can’t see a no deal happening. Rightly our wrongly, there is no will for it in Parliament and Europe don’t want it either.

Customs Union

This one nearly got voted forward in Westminster last week in the indicative votes.  I suspect, it may well get across the line this coming week.  What does it mean?

A permanent Customs Union would avoid the issue of the Irish border, but leaves the UK tied to European trade rules. This would make it harder, if not impossible for the UK to forge its own trade deals around the world. There would be no room for levering any trade advantage.

If this is taken forward, it would split the Conservatives in two, causing severe, possibly permanent damage to the party. Some are predicting the end of the party. Hence you can almost guarantee both the Labour Party, Lib Dems and SNP will vote in favour of this.  Should it happen, you can almost guarantee, Mrs May will reject the proposal, refusing to take it forward and instead will call for a General Election.  Just what Labour really want.

An Extension to Article 50

Or a sell out, depending on your point of view.  If Parliament can’t agree on a way forward, they could ask the EU to extend Article 50 for a long period. It would have to be a long extension of years not months. With the upcoming EU elections later this year, there will be no one to negotiate a new deal with until at least next year. of course this means the UK would have to hold EU elections. At a cost of over £100MM we would be electing officials to an institution we voted 3 years ago to leave? Hmm. Sounds about right. Moreover, even under the fixed term Parliament rules, we are likely to have had a General Election before the Article 50 extension expires.

The EU leaders would have to agree to any such extension. They probably will, but will doubtless try to impose stringent conditions as the price of any such extension, possibly including a General Election.

This option is favored by the Parliamentary Remainers as it delays the exit, giving more time to block it entirely. Personally, I see the outcome of any extension as being the cancellation of Brexit.  Europe have made it clear they are not prepared to negotiate a better deal. Any alternative deal will be a diluted, softer Brexit. So this is a Remainer win win scenario.

A General Election

The nuclear option for Mrs May or a possible EU demand for an Article 50 Extension. A 3rd General Election in 4 years.  The idea would be that one side wins more seats, getting a fresh mandate and making it easier to get a deal, any deal across the line. In reality, it’s more likely, based on recent polls, that we end up with a hung parliament again. It’s likely the Conservatives would have the most seats, but would undoubtedly lose a number. Meaning it would be possible for Labour to form a coalition government with the SNP.  Now that’s a scary prospect.

It’s almost certain the Conservatives will fight tooth and nail to avoid a General Election. They must realise they will get a severe kicking and end up in opposition, possibly for a long time. Mind you, in the current atmosphere of self deception, who knows. Perhaps they will embrace  this.  If so, they and the whole country will live to regret it.

My personal opinion is, if there is a general election there will be a hung parliament with Comrade Corbyn forming a coalition government. And then we will have bigger problems to worry about than Brexit. In fact we may be better off inside Europe as we will need them to bale us out after Corbyn and McDonnell  bankrupt the country. Not to mention Scotland demanding and getting a 2nd, probably a 3rd and even a 4th Independence neverendum until they get the result they want.  Thats when the fun will really start.

The Future?

Given the blatant cynicism of Labour, the opportunistic, logic free cynicism of the SNP and the self destructive, self absorbed attitude of the Conservatives, the future looks bleak.  Given the opportunity, I suspect most of us would like to go back to 2016 and pretend the whole sorry mess never happened. Sadly we can’t do that.  We are at an impasse that makes a mockery of the long upheld British traditions of Parliamentary Democracy, common sense and pragmatism. I have no idea if or how we recover from this.  Certainly our faith in our elected representatives will be damaged for a long time. But that’s the thing. Do we just accept this,  tutting and harrumphing in that very British way as we make a nice cup of tea? Or are we entering a new era?

Whilst not as big as the remain rally in London last week, the Leavers rally yesterday was more menacing and exhibited real anger and disappointment.  This was being encouraged by Tommy Robinson, a self styled,  ultra right wing political activist. By all accounts he is a nasty piece of work. But, by ignoring and actively trying to overturn the democratically expressed will of 17.4MM of our citizens, our Parliament is playing a dangerous game.  Given what we have seen across Europe, the Right wing party’s are growing in strength and we know where that can lead.  DO we even want to risk the possibility of that happening here?

The referendum  was a cowardly, stupid, knee jerk idea, but it delivered a decision. if Partliament deliberately choose to ignore this decision, its one which could come back to haunt not only them but the whole of the UK for a very long time.